A Misleading Statistic

Half appeals against Home Office decisions to deny people permission to live in Britain are successful. My initial reaction to that news was to wonder what was wrong with the Home Office, but on reflection I think that the proportion may be about right. It is not half of all decisions that are being overturned, but just half those that go to an appeals tribunal.

I should expect those to be cases where both the person appealing, and the Home Office officials consider they have a good case. If both sides exercise good judgement we might expect the result to be a draw, with each side winning about half the time.