The Prime Minister has promised that, if he wins the next General Election he will hold a referendum on European Union membership after he has re-negotiated the terms.
I expect that, if he is ever in a position to keep his promise, things will turn out much as they did in the last referendum on the subject in 1975.
Minor cosmetic changes in our conditions of membership will be presented as a great triumph, and membership will be ratified by a large majority, with the Prime Minister claiming a great victory.
However, nothing significant will have been won, and the cost will be high. Business confidence will have been undermined, and it is possible that the cost of servicing the National Debt will rise. As we have more than two years to wait for the next General Election, much of that cost will be incurred even if the Conservatives lose the next election so the Prime Minister cannot keep his promise.
I think the Prime Minister is clever enough to realise the consequences of his announcement, making his action especially reprehensible.
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I have a feeling that all this hoo-hah is an attempt to appease his own savage back-benchers, the English equivalent of the American Tea Party. He hopes it may also stop Farrago from snapping at his heels.
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